Please find below the
Finalist Evaluation
Judges'' ratings
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Judges'' comments
Judges' comments are outlined below:
Judge 1: This is a feasible proposal which is thought through.
Judge 2: This is an interesting and potentially very powerful idea. The approach of Deutsche Post DHL in Germany (they bought an EV start-up of a university Professor to build a custom delivery vehicle) shows that there is commercial interest for using electric vehicles in metropolitan areas for certain purposes. Retrofits are clearly a good opportunity for some vehicles. The use case as suggested in this proposal makes sense as well. Unfortunately, the proposal lacks a more detailed description of the technologies to be used and of the incentive mechanisms.
Judge 3: I liked the idea of creating a manual for vehicle conversions before and I like it equally now. I was hoping the authors to provide a bit more insight on how to do this manual writing e.g. but consulting actual market databases (even Alibaba would suffice) rather than inferring costs from Nissan Leaf or Tesla. Also explaining that this is an expandable project not only for trolley tour buses but for say delivery vans or light tractors would be helpful. Finally, since a manual would require specific mechanical characteristics, of the vehicles, being able to generalize them to provide a useful tool for platforms would help but the authors don't show how to do this.
Judge 4: This is a well written proposal for what appears to be a sensible and feasible project. I like the fact that it is not overly ambitious, and yet has the potential for decent emissions reductions, if successful.
Semi-Finalist Evaluation
Judges'' ratings
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Judges'' comments
The judges and fellows thank you for submitting this proposal.
The judges felt the proposal was technically feasible, interesting, and could improve local air quality
A few suggestions could help refine and improve the proposal:
- explain the economic rationale for replacing expensive electric powertrains for an ICE on an older commercial vehicle with unknown life expectancy
- discuss potential agents for covering the capital costs of such a transition
- consider whether focusing on light duty vehicles and small vans first would be an easier option
- consider developing a database of components and a manufacturers list to simplify the process further
 Bill Ferree Oct 25, 2017 05:23  | Proposal creator In response to the judges' comment on "economic rationale," consider: Conversion to an electric powertrain is expensive only if the capital investment is compared with the optimistic “do nothing” alternative—keep driving, hope the tired old engine and transmission hold together, and pretend there’s no payment at the pump. Real world: Trolley in Savannah
CAT Proterra battery electric buses
Projected BEV trolley cash flow (yearly):
Conversion cost: 50 kWh battery at $200/kWh, $10,000. Traction motors, two required at around $5,000 each. If balance of system is a like amount, $40,000 total. Payback: 20 months
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Bill Ferree Oct 30, 2017 12:55 | Proposal creator In response to judges' comment "discuss potential agents for covering the capital costs of such a transition"
For many vehicle operators, cash flow from lower operating expenses will provide sufficient economic return to cover the cost of conversion without outside financial aid. In the case of the tourist trolley with a 40 mile daily usage pattern, a 20 month payback period on the original investment seems plausible. Up-front investment of $40,000 can result in annual positive cash flow improvement of $24,000. If those target numbers can be achieved, 6% is the assumed cost of funds, and a useful life of the vehicle after conversion is five years, the net present value is $57,638. In other words, if you took your $40,000 and invested it in the battery electric conversion you would be over $57,000 better off than putting that same money in an account earning 6% interest.
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Bill Ferree Nov 2, 2017 12:05 | Proposal creator In response to judges’ suggestion, “consider whether focusing on light duty vehicles and small vans first would be an easier option” There is merit in the “kiss” method. This is potentially a very large project, large meaning the complete conversion of the commercial vehicle fleet. Starting small (and simple) should be considered. The initial goal is to demonstrate economic feasibility. Success will be most obvious if the vehicle’s mission fits within the capabilities of battery electric drive. A vehicle with a relatively modest range and speed requirement, and a predictable pattern of usage probably offers the best potential investment payback. Nominal 50 miles of travel with a top speed of approximately 60 mph seems like the starting point. There are literally millions of vehicles that can function well within those constraints. The tourist trolley is just one example. As has been suggested by other commenters, why not target the UPS delivery truck? This may well be the testbed of choice. The class B truck chassis (up to 10,000 lbs.) could certainly carry the somewhat heavier weight of the complete battery and motor drivetrain, and there would be adequate space available for mounting of the battery pack. It can be accomplished with minimal sacrifice of cargo weight carrying capability and cargo space. Another consideration that recommends this path is that it would be possible to essentially use an off the shelf drive motor controller package. The delivery truck operating at roughly half the weight of a loaded trolley could use a single Nissan Leaf drive motor and a battery pack half the size suggested for the trolley. The Leaf’s available 30 kWh battery supplies an EPA rated 107 miles of range between charges. Even the original 24 kWh battery in the 2013 model was good for 73 miles according to EPA. The published top speed was 93. The motor battery package from a Leaf could be modified slightly with gearing to reduce vehicle top speed to 70 mph. This would make available approximately 250 ft-lb of torque, quite adequate for a 10,000 lb. or less gross weight vehicle. |
Bill Ferree Nov 6, 2017 04:50 | Proposal creator Changes to the original proposal include the addition of a discussion of the economic benefits to the end user of a commercial vehicle that has been converted to battery electric drive. Net present value for the conversion of a hypothetical tour trolley is projected. In the example, a payback period of less than two years is calculated. Additionally, a brief discussion is added in the section describing where implementation of the proposal might take place. There is significant benefit for end users of converted vehicles in developing countries and a significant benefit in terms of potential greenhouse gas reductions. The African countries of Cameroon, Mozambique, and Senegal are mentioned as plausible candidates. |
