Seed Proposal: INDCs submitted to 2015 UN climate negotiations by laubacher

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Pitch

This proposal is based on emission reduction commitments (known as INDCs) made by 123 countries prior to the 2015 UN Climate talks.

Description

Summary

This seed proposal is based on Climate Interactive's analysis of emission reduction commitments submitted by 123 countries in advance of the UNFCCC's 2015 climate negotiations. It was created by a member of the Climate CoLab staff. We invite other CoLab members to link to this proposal or to use it as a starting point for creating new proposals of their own. Climate Interactive and the UNFCCC have not reviewed or endorsed this proposal. 

As part of the climate negotiations conducted each year under the auspices of the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) that outline pledges for future reductions in their national greenhouse gas emissions.  

Climate Interactive, a non-profit that builds tools to help people understand what works to address climate change and related issues, has analyzed what would happen if these INDCs were implemented. 

This analysis, called the Climate Scorecard, projects that if all current INDCs are adopted, average global temperature would increase 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100. 

This is below the 4.5 degree Celsius (8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature increase projected to occur with a continuation of Business as Usual (BAU).

But it is far above the 2 degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) maximum increase most scientists and many policy makers view as appropriate.  

The analysis assumes that countries will reach the targets outlined in their INDCs, most of which focus on 2025-2030, but would make no further reductions after the pledge period.

If pledged reductions were to continue along the same trajectory after 2025-2030, the increase in average global temperature is projected to be 3.2 degrees Celsius (5.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the year 2100.

The analysis goes on to outline the impact of even more ambitious emission reduction pathways, noting that to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, emissions for all countries would peak by 2030-2035 and then go down by 3.5 percent annually on average for the remainder of the century. 

Which plan do you select for China?

Which plan do you select for India?

Which plan do you select for the United States?

Which plan do you select for Europe?

Which plan do you select for other developing countries?

Which plan do you select for other developed countries?

What additional cross-regional proposals are included in your plan, if any?

How do the regional and cross-sectoral plans above fit together?

Country and regional proposals that reflect the INDCs as of November 2015 were selected. 

Explanation of the emissions scenario calculated in the Impact tab

The following variables were selected in EnROADS because there were in line with the overall aggregate thrust of current INDCs and resulted in a 3.5 degree Celsius temperature increase in the year 2100, the temperature increase for that year projected by Climate Interactive in its Climate Scorecard:

• Population and GDP growth kept at default levels (UN middle population growth scenario and 2.2% annual global GDP growth)
• Annual increase in energy efficiency of all new capital stock set at 2% (higher than historical average)
• Costs of renewables and nuclear assumed to go down by 25% through 2030
• $25/ton carbon price assumed to be in place starting in 2030
• Land use emissions and other GHG emissions assumed to go down by 25% through 2050

What are the plan’s key benefits?

What are the plan’s costs?

What are the key challenges to enacting this plan?

Timeline

References

Climate Interactive resources
Climate Scoreboard
Scoreboard Science and Data
FAQs
One page summary

UNFCCC resources
Submitted INDCs
2015 climate negotiations (COP21)

Related efforts to track impact of INDCs
UN Environmental Program (UNEP), Emission Gap Report
Climate Action Tracker